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Markets, All Time Highs, & The Benefits of Red Lights – Finger Financial Five #33

Jeremy Finger
Jeremy Finger
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“There is more to life than increasing its speed.” – Gandhi

This past weekend, we had our annual Dunes Derby golf tournament at the Dunes Club.  The top 10 teams (20 people) advance to the “Derby.”  Here, they shoot-out over 5 holes, eliminating two teams on each hole.  Those of us who did not make the Derby, cheer our “horses” on and maybe place an occasional side bet.

A fellow observer challenged me that 10 to 1 a particular team would win the tournament with three holes to go.  There were only 6 teams in the field at this point.  Everything being equal, one would suspect that a fair bet would be 6-1 not 10-1.  The team he wanted, had already hit their first two shots, so everything was not equal.  In addition, the skills of the players had to be considered, and also the position of the other teams. We settled on 8-1.  You see, two of the teams were already near the hole and almost guaranteed to advance to the next hole, thereby increasing the chances of his team not advancing.  All in all, I thought it was a fair bet for entertainment purposes.  

In investing we don’t want the odds to be fair.  We want them to be heavily in our favor.  If we think of the stock market going up on a daily basis, we are basically a coin flip 49.9999 vs 50.0001.  Over one year 75% up vs 25% down.  As time goes on, your chances increase.   

This is why market timing is such a poor decision.  You are trading odds in your favor over the longer term, with the chance you are dead right in the short term. It is like driving from Myrtle Beach to Florida, but being stuck at a red light, so you switch from a car to a bicycle.  The car may not be the fastest every single second, but OVER TIME it is better than riding a bike.  

Many people focus on the speed of each day.  Rushing from one thing to another.  That can lead to misery.  There will always be something faster.    Want to put the odds heavily in your favor to have a life of peace, warmth and fulfillment?  Focus on enjoying the ride, the view, and connecting with the people you are riding with.  A red light is a gentle reminder to pause and enjoy the view.     

On the lighter side, I agreed to buy a Peloton (stationary bike) off Facebook Marketplace this past weekend.  I thought about paying Elliott and a friend of his to pick it up in Charlotte, but decided against it.  Instead, he and I drove up there together, listening to music, talking, etc.  We were lucky.  Caught a bunch of red lights. 

Hope all is well with you and your family,


Jeremy 

 

Investment advice offered through Stratos Wealth Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor; DBA Riverbend Wealth Management.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information and provided by Riverbend Wealth Management. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Stratos Wealth Partners and its affiliates do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction.

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